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Ariel Sharon’s Legacy
RAMON RODRIGUEZ
ph/fax-805-524-5480
Copyright MMV
This much is clear about Prime Minister Ariel
Sharon’s fight to stay alive, and the desperate
effort by his doctors to save his life, which is
that, whether he survives his greatest crisis or he
does not, his political career is at an end, barring
a miracle of biblical proportions. With his
impending departure from the scene, both of the
major players who have dominated the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict for decades will have
left us, no longer guiding their respective peoples
in the search for peace and stability in the war
zone called the Middle East. As it turns out, PM
Sharon barely outlived his nemesis, Yasser Arafat,
and thus never had the opportunity to make the most
of his outlasting President Arafat. The question of
the moment, out of many that demand and answer, is
whether ultimately their departure bodes well for
peace in the Middle East or is rather a portent of
evil times ahead for all concerned. What happens
between the Palestinians and the Israelis is of
course a matter of great import for the rest of the
world, evidence of which is the well-known fact that
Al Qaeda justified its attack on the United States
on 11 September 2001 in part by blaming it for the
evils that had befallen the Palestinians.
Ariel Sharon’s exit from the scene obviously
reshuffles the deck, coming as it did at a crucial
period in the politics and history of the Middle
East. The Palestinians under Mr. Arafat’s successor,
Mahmoud Abbas, have struggled to bring a modicum of
law and order to their territory but in the process
seem to be edging ever closer to all out civil war.
So far the frustrations of the various Palestinian
factions have been kept in check, but just barely,
with armed conflict breaking out from time to time.
Palestinian guerillas have for the most part
observed a cease fire in their armed struggle
against the Israelis, but when they have violated
the de facto cease fire, as they did about a
fortnight ago, the Israelis respond with massive
force, and in fact they continue to eliminate one by
one various Palestinian guerilla leaders careless
enough to allow themselves to be tracked and then
eliminated via precision missile strikes when they
were traveling by car, which made of them easy
targets for Israeli drones armed with deadly
missiles. PM Sharon’s departure might embolden these
Palestinians to carry out more attacks against the
Israelis, believing that the Israelis will not
retaliate with no one really in charge of the
Israeli defense forces: i.e. certain Palestinian
factions might be tempted to take advantage of this
latest Israeli turmoil and power vaccum.
Mr.
Sharon’s legacy might in fact include the further
destabilization of the Middle East, as described
above, and could cause havoc on both sides of the
Israeli-Palestinian divide in unforeseeable ways. As
discussed above, certain Palestinian factions might
use the opportunity to strike out at Israel, in
which case the IDF is bound to retaliate in force,
with a re-invasion of the Gaza Strip definitely a
possibility. Though many observers are accustomed to
looking at Mr. Sharon as an uncompromising warrior
and a staunch opponent of peace with the
Palestinians, he had noticeably changed his stripes
recently, becoming a staunch supporter of the
Israeli-Palestinian peace process: that is why he
took his leave of the Likud Party, seeing it as an
obstacle to peace between the Palestinians and the
Israelis.
With Mr. Sharon incapacitation and possible demise,
all the progress that has been made of late with
regard to building the foundations of peace between
the Israelis and the Palestinians is now at risk. It
is not just certain Palestinian groups that might
take advantage of Israel’s latest crisis. There are
certain well-known Israelis also prepared to exploit
the current situation in Israel, prepared also to
roll back all the perceived “concessions” made to
the Palestinians by Ariel Sharon. The centrist party
that Mr. Sharon was forming out of the Likud Party
by which to continue the peace process now seems
doomed, since it apparently has lost its reason for
being. The way is now clear for another struggle for
power between Likud and Labour, with the distinct
possibility that Benjamin Netanyahu will reclaim the
office of Prime Minister.
It
is a tragedy, and it is ironic that just when Ariel
Sharon had embarked on reinventing Israeli politics
for the purpose of achieving peace with the
Palestinians, he was struck down in media res. Now
that he is apparently making his final exit, we have
reached another turning point in the history of the
Middle East, the only question being, what happens
next? The answer would seem to be, anything might
happen next, in which case we should all be prepared
for any eventuality.
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